Risk
“Risk” usually refers to the probability of loss of a ‘valued resource’. In the context of health and environmental risks, the word “risk” integrates two ideas:
- the potential for detrimental consequences and
- the uncertainty associated with the circumstances
In the context of disaster management, risk implies application of knowledge to forewarn of disasters accurately and anticipate the risks involved with regard to land use management and project planning decisions in hazard prone areas so as to prevent/reduce impact.
With regard to disaster terminology, Risk is defined as “the likelihood of a specified undesired event occurring within a specified period or in specified circumstances.
Risk = f (frequency or probability, consequence)
Frequency is usually expressed as events per year
Probability is a number between 0 and 1
Consequence is usually measured in terms of either money or fatalities
Hazard is a potentially dangerous situation
Disaster is a hazard leading to a catastrophe
Vulnerability is the physical, social, economic, cultural or based on inclination to hazards
Risk is the harm likely from anticipated event and may be measured through comparative analysis of data collected over time and scientific simulation studies. Measurement of risk in disaster management is a complex issue.
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