Global trends in disasters

GLOBAL TRENDS IN DISASTERS

Data and statistics are important in understanding the impacts and costs of disasters. Systematic disaster data collection and analysis can be used to inform policy decisions to help reduce disaster risks and build resilience. The term, "Global Trends" refers to a change in the situation that affects many countries of the world. Generally, the world has been witness to an increasing in the number of disasters as listed below-

1. According to statistics from United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), the number of disasters has increased significantly in recent years. This has been possible due to accurate recordings and better communication technology.
2. Population growth has led to more people living in potentially hazardous locations.
3. Countries in the developing world are more vulnerable because of their low coping capacity.
4. The number of Earthquake events has not increased in the past decades and is fairly stable.
5. An increase in number of floods and wind storms has is seen. This may be due to global environmental changes or climate change.
6. Around fifty to seventy volcanoes erupt every year. Eruptions of a very large magnitude are rare. The trend also shows an increase in the number of people affected indicating the growing population density in the developing world.
7. An increase in the hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been linked to global warming.
8. It has also been proposed that a natural cycle in the Atlantic called Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) to explain the high number of major hurricanes.
9. The USA has a long term trend of falling hurricane related deaths and increasing economic costs
10. People living along the coast are at risk from hurricanes.
11. Increasing coastal populations causes increased risk from hurricanes
12. Scientists believe that increased global warming will lead to more unpredictable weather and an increase in weather events.
13. Hazards associated with El-Nino are well known such as drought in Indonesia and flood in Peru
14. Summer of 2007 witnessed wide spread flooding in the UK. This was linked to La Nina conditions in the pacific.

However, with respect to specific disasters, the global trend observed is discussed below

Urban disasters

The term 'urban disaster' is misleading. It could refer to a natural disaster like flood or earthquake occurring in an urban area or man-made disaster like overpopulation in an urban area or an industrial accident like an explosion or chemical leakage seiously affecting an urban area. Whichever the case, the impact is loss of economy, loss of jobs and destruction of natural resources. There has been a steady increase in the number of urban disasters leading to destruction of infrastructure. Unplanned and unscientific methods of mining and construction has led to sporadic but steady increase in number of Earthquakes, landslides and land subsidence incidents throughout the world. Overpopulation has led to conflicts and wars between countries over natural resources. Global environmental issues like global warming and sea level rise are primarily affecting urban areas resulting in them being termed as urban disasters. Spread of urban areas causing 'urban sprawl' and 'heat island effect' are primarily environmental issues of concern and if these issues are not addresses in time before they will actually become 'urban disasters'. Hence the global trend concerning urban disasters is steadily increasing.

Pandemics 
 A pandemic is defined as a sudden outbreak that very widespread and affects a whole region, a continent, or world due to a susceptible population. A pandemic causes a high degree of mortality. Ex- small pox and tubeculosis. A pandemic is basically a global epidmeic. It is an epidemic that spreads to more than one continent. A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. HIV/AIDS is an example of one of the most destructive global pandemics in history. Influenza pandemics occurred in-
-Spanish influenza (1918) killed 40 - 50 million people
-Asian influenza (1957) killed 2 million people
-Hongkong influenza (1968) killed 1 million people
Evidence suggests that the possibility of pansemics has increased over the past century because of increased global travel and integration, urbanization, changes in land use and greater exploitation of the natural environment. It is predicted that these trends will continue and intensify in future. A few pandemics in the recent past were malaria, HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, SARS in 2003, Ebola virus in 2013 and avian flu pandemics has seen sporadic outbursts in the past. Pandemics appear to be increasing in frequency because of increasing emergence of viral disease from animals. Some geographic regions with a high risk of origin  of a pandemic (sprak risk) lack in preparedness to handle the disease. Influenza is the most likely pathogen to cause a severe pandemic.

Global emergencies 
The term 'complex emergency' has no clear definition. It is often the result of a combination of political instability, conflict, social inequity, underlying poverty and violence. Complex emergencies are essentially political in nature and erode cultural, civil, political and economic stabilities of society. They can be worsened by natural hazards. Cities in the developing world exhibit the characteristics of complex emergencies. Complex emergencies have been defined as crises resulting from a combination of instabilities interacting with each other. Complex emergencies combine internal conflict with large scale displacement of people, mass famine and food shortage and fragile or failing economic, political and social institutions. Complex emergencies display four main types of instability-

1. Political instability
2. Economic instability
3. Environmental instability and
4. Demographic instability

Complex emergencies are present virtually in every part of the world. However, they are prevelant in areas without proper governance, poverty, lack of education in the community, unhygenic living conditions, etc.
Armed conflicts have been a major cause of disruption in the last decade. There has been an increase in the number of political conflicts has increased from 2006 to 2016 as per statistics published by United Nations Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs (UNOCHA).

Climate change 
Climate change refers to a change in the global or regional climate patterns.
A direct relationship exists between climate and health. Climate change will be responsible for almost 250,000 additional deaths due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress. Climate change has also contributed to increased frequency of natural disasters. The current warming trend is of the human activity since the mid 20th century. The increased levels of green house gases has caused the Earth to warm up in response. The current warming is occurring around ten times faster than the rate of ice-age-recovery warming. Rapid climate change is evident through
-Global temperature rise
-Warming oceans
-Shrinking ice sheets
-Glacial retreat
-Decreased snow cover
-Sea level rise
-Declining arctic sea ice
-Extreme events and
-Ocean acidification
Trends show an increase in warming of the world's climate. This temperature will not be uniform across the globe over time. This implies a shorter and milder winter followed by longer and hotter summers. This adversely affects agriculture and ecosystems. Climate change also results in an increase in frequncy and duration in rainfall. Increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves result in drought. Climate change also causes frequent intense storms (cyclone).